County and rural councils in England expect costs to rise £7bn a year by 2028/29

Care is in the £7bn, but CCN has not said how much

County and rural councils in England expect to spend £7 billion a year more on services by 2028/29 than they did in 2025/26, according to the County Councils Network (CCN). It wants the government to act in the Autumn Budget before that bill lands (opens in a new tab).

Adult social care, children's services and SEND home-to-school transport together make up the bulk of the rise. CCN gives no figure for how much of it is adult social care.

That gap matters to every provider paid by these councils, and to the commissioners setting those fees. The councils are planning for a squeeze they have not yet split by service.

A council money problem becomes a fee problem

CCN speaks for county councils and for the councils that run all local services across rural areas, known as rural unitary councils. Together they commission much of the care in county and rural England.

According to The Carer's report of the submission, CCN expects these councils' total spending on local services to rise from £30bn this year to £37.1bn in 2028/29 (opens in a new tab). It wants the Budget to stop its members having to reduce services, apply for Exceptional Financial Support, or declare insolvency.

Cllr Steven Broadbent, CCN's finance spokesperson, said the Fair Funding Review had redirected money away from counties. Broadbent warned that if inflation rises further, current cost estimates could be just the "tip of the iceberg".

This is not the same gap as Care England's

Care England has separately found that councils underpay for older people's residential and nursing care by £2.36bn a year (opens in a new tab). The two figures measure different things and are not directly comparable.

Care England's is a shortfall now, across all English councils, for one type of care. CCN's is a forecast rise in costs for county and rural councils only, across three services, and may already include some of the same fee pressure. But each, on its own terms, points the same way: paying for care is getting harder.

The Budget could answer the counties and leave care where it is

Much of CCN's case is about growth. County areas are home to 48% of England's businesses, CCN argues, yet get a smaller share of spending on buses, business support and adult education.

CCN also wants deals in place by the end of 2028 for the councils that still have no devolution settlement and are pursuing one voluntarily. The government has not yet set out a response.

A Budget could meet the counties on growth and devolution without settling the care bill. When county councils next set fees, how much of the £7 billion will care be asked to carry?