Care body's plan for jobless young people meets its own turnover figures

The CAA says youth unemployment and care vacancies are one problem

The Care Association Alliance (CAA), which represents care provider associations, published a policy paper titled 'Towards a National Workforce Settlement' (opens in a new tab) on 15 October. It argues that youth unemployment and unfilled care posts should be tackled together, with adult social care in England as a route into work for young people.

The weak point is in the paper itself. More than half of care workers under 20 leave within their first year, according to the CAA (opens in a new tab), so the hard part is keeping young people, not finding them.

Operators pay to replace every leaver. Government would be sending young people into work many of them quit within a year. The CAA's four asks are meant to fix this. Whether they can is the question.

Young recruits are the ones who leave

Under-25s have the highest turnover of any age group in the sector, at 35.5 per cent, according to Skills for Care's latest figures (opens in a new tab).

Pay gives them little reason to stay. A care worker with five or more years' experience now earns 12p an hour more than one with less than a year's experience, down from 33p in 2016, according to the CAA (opens in a new tab).

The CAA describes pay that rewards turning up rather than getting better, and links it to turnover. Any registered manager will know the pattern: a young starter learns the job in a year and sees that five more years adds almost nothing to their pay.

On paper, the gap looks easy to close

Adult social care in England has around 96,000 unfilled posts, against 288,470 people claiming unemployment-related benefits, close to three claimants for every vacancy, according to the CAA (opens in a new tab).

The number of 16 to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training passed one million in January to March 2026, the first time since 2013, and stood at 981,000 in April to June, according to the CAA's paper (opens in a new tab). Alan Milburn's interim review warned in May 2026 that the number could reach 1.25 million within five years, according to the CAA (opens in a new tab).

Those youth figures are not broken down by nation, while the vacancy, claimant and workforce figures are for England only. So the two halves of the CAA's case do not line up exactly: not every young person in the national count is within reach of a care job in England.

The longer view is starker. Adult social care in England will need 410,000 more posts by 2040, according to Skills for Care's projections (opens in a new tab). Posts filled by British workers have fallen by 130,000 since 2020/21, according to Skills for Care.

Under-25s make up only 7 per cent of the workforce, against a 12 per cent average across other sectors, according to Skills for Care (opens in a new tab).

Today's jobless teenagers are the National Care Service's future staff

The CAA's case for acting now rests on timing. The National Care Service would not launch until the next parliament, after an election due by mid-2029, according to the CAA (opens in a new tab). What the service would cover has not yet been set out.

Today's 16 to 24-year-olds will be in their twenties by then, according to the CAA, and Skills for Care's own projections show the current workforce in England cannot cover the gap alone. The people the service will need are the ones the sector struggles to hold on to now.

Four asks costed at £61m to £76m a year

The CAA wants government to fund Level 4 qualifications, restore the qualification fund to £53.9m, set up a national competency record and give independent prescribing rights to 1,000 social care nurses, according to its roadmap (opens in a new tab). The CAA puts the cost of the four at £61m to £76m a year.

Its economic case is that turnover already costs far more. The sector loses around 320,000 workers a year, at a replacement cost of £1.2bn to £1.9bn, by the CAA's estimate (opens in a new tab). Cutting turnover by one percentage point would return £52m to £87m a year, according to the CAA.

Those are the CAA's own estimates. Government has not yet responded to the paper.

The pay ceiling sits outside the package

The asks are aimed at a career path, and that is a fair answer to the turnover figures. But the package is built mainly around qualifications and prescribing rights. It does not touch the fee rates and council commissioning that set what providers can pay.

Bringing more young people in without changing what happens to their pay after year one could feed the same revolving door, with operators paying again to replace them.

The package pays for qualifications. It does not pay for the pay rise a qualification should bring, and that is what a young care worker weighs at the end of their first year.