Proposed 15-year settlement wait threatens the care workers providers struggle to replace

Staff are leaving before anything has been decided

In a January 2026 survey of 108 homecare providers, 28% told the Homecare Association that sponsored workers had already left because of uncertainty about settlement (opens in a new tab). The government has not yet decided anything.

The government has proposed extending the standard qualifying period for settlement, or indefinite leave to remain, to 15 years for some visa routes. The Homecare Association, which represents more than 2,100 homecare providers across the UK, is asking ministers to confirm this will not apply to care workers already living and working here.

The risk is lost care. According to the Association's survey, 48% of providers expect to hand back care packages or reduce the care they deliver because of the policy (opens in a new tab). For operators that means lost income. For councils that commission homecare, it means gaps in local supply.

The workers already here are now the whole question

Direct overseas recruitment into care ended in July 2025. According to Skills for Care, international recruits entering the sector fell from about 105,000 in 2023/24 to about 30,000 in 2025/26 (opens in a new tab).

So the settlement rules no longer shape who comes to work in care. They shape whether the people already doing the work stay.

Skills for Care estimates that about 230,000 people arrived in Britain and started care roles in England's independent adult social care sector (opens in a new tab) between 2022/23 and 2024/25. Under current rules, many could become eligible for settlement over the next few years. They are the people a longer wait would hit.

Those figures cover England only. The settlement rules apply across the UK.

Losing one sponsored worker costs more hours than it looks

Of the providers surveyed, 50% said sponsored workers had told them they would leave if the qualifying period went up. The Association says that in 59% of cases, sponsored workers deliver a higher share of care hours than their share of the workforce (opens in a new tab).

That matters on the rota. A registered manager who loses one sponsored carer can lose more than one person's worth of visits.

Local hiring is not filling the gap. According to the Association, 28% of providers received no suitable applicants who did not need sponsorship, and a further 40% received only one or two.

Three ways of filling a rota are narrowing at once: new sponsored recruits, sponsored staff staying, and local applicants. Handing back care is where that ends. The figures come from the Association's own members, so read them as the direction of the risk more than its exact size.

Opposition is growing, and a decision is said to be close

Over 100 Labour MPs are reported to oppose the proposals (opens in a new tab). The Association's call came ahead of a UNISON protest at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool.

The Prime Minister is said to be considering an exemption for care workers already in the UK. The Home Secretary has said a decision is imminent.

The case against an exemption is real. The proposed longer wait is part of a wider move to lengthen settlement routes across the immigration system, and a care-only carve-out could bring the same demand from other sponsored jobs facing the same change.

A visa answer would not settle the fees question

The Homecare Association puts settlement alongside commissioning. It argues that fair fees and guaranteed hours are needed (opens in a new tab) for sponsored care workers to stay, even if the immigration rules go providers' way.

An exemption would tell a sponsored worker they can stay. Whether the job gives them a reason to depends on the fees councils set and the hours and terms providers can then offer.